Climate Change Strikes Santiago: Interview with Expert Kerstin Krellenberg
by Charlotte Méritan
After an alarming report foreseeing a temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius in Santiago by 2050, the UFZ Center for Environmental Research, together with the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT), and its Chilean partners, has put in place the Climate Adaptation Santiago plan. Expert Kerstin Krellenberg has answered I Love Chile‘s questions in order to help us understand the issue of the climate change in Santiago and the reasons for this adaptation plan.
I Love Chile: On what indicators does the UFZ institute’s investigation base its prediction of an increase of 2 degrees Celsius by 2050?
Kerstin Krellenberg: The predictions for future climate change in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago (MRS) have been undertaken by our colleagues at the Universidad de Chile within the ClimateAdaptationSantiago project. Using a downscaling methodology, temperature, precipitation and secondary variable trends were estimated for the time window 2045-2065. Historical and current climates as well as the expected future climate changes of Santiago were assessed through the analysis of main climate variables from existing meteorological stations. The obtained results show for the 2045-2065 period that the temperatures in the region, both maximum and minimum, are expected to rise by approximately 1-2 degrees Celsius. This apparently small change leads to a significant increase in days with extreme temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and a significant decrease in days with temperatures below freezing point. Higher temperatures will increase storm water runoff from higher elevations of the city.
ILC: What are the main causes of this situation in Santiago, despite the recycling efforts and environmentally friendly initiatives flourishing everywhere in the city?
KK: The earth’s climate is driven by a range of different factors. There is growing consensus that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures is very likely due to human activity. The research was especially aimed at analyzing the impacts of climate change for Santiago on key sectors like water, energy, land use and vulnerability. The results depict that there are, among others, strong linkages between ongoing processes of urban expansion, changing land use patterns, climate change, and flood and heat hazard generation. The water sector already today shows a problematic situation, mainly due to the increase in population and economic activity which calls for a high water demand. Measures are required to adapt water use patterns in order to achieve a more balanced situation between water supply and demand.
All ongoing activities in the Metropolitan Region regarding the reduction of energy and water use, as well as the reduction of hazard generation and exposure, are, of course, important measures, but should be intensified in order to adapt effectively to the changing situation in Santiago.
ILC: How can we stop this climate change?
KK: All adequate mitigation measures are of course an important step forward. Nevertheless, given that a specific level of climate change impact is irreversible and that the climate only changes very slowly, CO2 concentrations are not expected to decrease significantly even if the world would suddenly shift to a net zero carbon economy. Therefore, adaptation comes to the fore as an essential and, complementary to mitigation, integral part of climate policy by preparing for the risks and the chances related to climate change, and bundling long-term development policy-making with the climate agenda.
ILC: How was the Climate Adaptation Santiago project born? What are its main objectives?
KK: The CAS project builds up on previous research undertaken by the Helmholtz Association together with their Chilean partners (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Universidad de Chile and CEPAL) regarding risk and sustainability research in the Metropolitan Region. Taking into account that Santiago did not have an explicit climate action plan on the urban-regional level, the idea was to continue research with good partners on a reliable data base with a new focus on climate change.
Therefore, the main objective was to develop adaptation measures in the key sectors of energy, water, land use and vulnerability. Within a three-year period and a series of ten round table meetings organized in Santiago, a regional climate adaptation plan was developed jointly by scientists and the involved stakeholders. Thereby, the adaptation plan is a shared result of close cooperation between politics, practice and science.
ILC: Do you think the population of Santiago is ready to make the necessary efforts?
KK: Over the last three years, awareness about climate change in Santiago has grown substantially, not only as a result to the efforts of the CAS project. The government is very much supporting the implementation of the plan and its measures. At the end, it depends on individuals who push the process and on the overall willingness of the regional authorities to undertake action. Furthermore, pilot projects in some municipalities will be an important step forward to show the population how to undertake possible adaptation measures in order to suffer less from flood or heat.
