River Discharge Projection under Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand,
Using the MRI-GCM3.1S Dataset
P. B. HUNUKUMBURA and Yasuto TACHIKAWA
Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
(Manuscript received 28 February 2011, in final form 9 September 2011)
Abstract
The impact of climate change on river flow in the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand is analyzed by feeding future runo¤ projection data into a distributed flow routing model. The projection data used consists of daily runo¤ generation, which is downscaled into hourly data, by assuming the temporal pattern is proportional to GCM generated hourly precipitation. The GCM dataset used is a 20 km spatial resolution general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.1S) developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, for the present climate experiment (1979–2003), the near future climate experiment (2015–2039), and the future climate experiment (2075–2099). The main findings of the river discharge projections are as follows: 1) clear changes in hourly flood peak discharge, daily drought discharge, and monthly discharge were detected; 2) for each discharge, the degree of change di¤ered by location; 3) the changes appeared in the near future climate experiment and became clearer in the future climate experiment; and 4) a significant decrease in discharge was detected at the Pasak River basin in October.
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 90A, pp. 137--150, 2012.
DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2012-A07
Corresponding author: Yasuto Tachikawa, Department
of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto
University, C1-116, Kyoto University Katsura Campus,
Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan.
E-mail:
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
6 2012, Meteorological Society of Japan
