Monthly district level risk of dengue occurrences in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand

M. Sriprom ^a, K Chalvet-Monfray ^b,c, T Chaimane ^d, K Vongsawat ^a, D.J. Bicout ^c*

^a Faculty of Science and Technology, Sakon Nakhon Rajabhat University, Nittayo Road, That Choeng Chum, Mueang, Sakon Nakhon, 47000, Thailand
^b INRA, UR346 d'Epidémiologie Animale, F63122 Saint Genès Champanelle, VetAgro Sup/Université de Lyon, 1 avenue Bourgelat, F - 69280 Marcy L'Etoile, France
^c Biomathématiques et Epidémiologie, EPSP - TIMC, UMR CNRS 5525 UJF/VetAgro Sup, 1 avenue Bourgelat, F - 69280 Marcy l'Etoile, France
^d Sakon Nakhon Provincial Public Health Office, Mueang, Sakon Nakhon, 47000, Thailand

a b s t r a c t

The paper deals with the incidence of the Dengue Virus Infection (DVI) in the 18 districts of Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand, from January 2005 to December 2007. Using a statistical and autoregressive analysis to smooth incidence data, we have constructed yearly and monthly district level maps of the DVI distribution. It is found that the DVI incidence is very correlated with weather conditions and higher occurrences are observed in the three most populated districts Wanon Niwat, Sawang Daen Din and Mueang Sakon Nakhon, and the virus transmission period spans from mid-summer to mid-rainy seasons (from April to August). Employing a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we found that the DVI incidences were related with current meteorological (monthly minimum temperature, past 2-month cumulated rainfall) and socio-economical (population of 0–4 years old, per capita number of public small water wells, and proportion of villages with primary schools) covariates. And using the GLM under the climate change conditions (A1B scenario of IPCC), we found that the higher risk of DVI spreads from the three most populated districts to less populated ones, and the period of virus transmission increases from 5 to 9 months to include part of winter, summer and rainy seasons (from March to November) during which 6%, 61% and 33% of districts will be at low, medium and high risk of DVI occurrences, respectively.

Keywords: Dengue Virus Infection,Incidence,Meteorological factors,Socio-economical indicators,Occurrence risk

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