Modelling farm-level adaptation of temperate, pasture-based dairy farms to climate change
Eelctra Kalaugher a*, Pierre Beukes b, Janet F. Bornman c, Anthony Clark d, David I. Campbell
a Landcare Research, Private Bag 3127, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand
b DairyNZ, Private Bag 3221, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand
c Curtin University, International Institute of Agri-Food Security, GPO Box U1987, Perth,Western Australia 6845, Australia
d NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange Agricultural Institute, Forest Road, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia
e Faculty of Science & Engineering, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand
Abstract
Projections indicate that climate change may exacerbate existing challenges to the productivity of New Zealand dairy farming systems. To assess the importance of these projections and understand adaptation challenges at farm level, detailed farm-scale model simulations of climate change impacts were undertaken for six representative pasture-based dairy farms located in the major dairying regions of New Zealand. The analysis suggested that without adaptation, climate change is likely to have a negative impact in most of the study locations. However, the level and type of impact depends to a large degree on regional climate variability as well as on the management practices of each farm. Under current management, responses to projected climate changes ranged from no change to an 18% decrease in average annual pasture production. A number of modelled adaptations demonstrated the potential to reduce climate change impacts under current management. The modelling work, together with farmers' responses, showed the adaptations' potential to provide both benefits and management challenges across different regions and climate conditions. In particular, it highlighted the need for the results of farm systems modelling under climate change scenarios to be considered in the context of their specific and localised climatic and management challenges.
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (E. Kalaugher).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.008
0308-521X/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
