Effects of Climate Change on Heat Accumulation and Precipitation in Thailand
W. Jinsart and S. Thepanondh
Abstract
The impact of future climate change on heat accumulation and precipitation in Thailand were simulated by the regional circulation model (RCM) in SIMCLIM system. The model was run under four Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A1FI, A2 and B1. The temperature variability in regional scales was analyzed using the observed daily data from 1951 to 2011. The year 1992 was used as a base year in this analysis. The heat accumulation, in 2042 was increased 14%, 15%, 12 % and 11% and in 2092 was increased 33%, 49%, 41% and 22% for A1B, A1FI, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. The precipitation was simulated using the year 2012 as a base year. The increase precipitation in June, for worst case A1F1 was 3.42% in 50 years and 5.85% in 100 years. In A1B1 with taking care of global warming, the precipitation in June will increase 2.67% in 50 years and 3.93% in 100 years.
Index Terms—Climate change, heat accumulation, precipitation, Thailand.
International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, Vol. 5, No. 4, August 2014
